Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
