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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement wins the prize. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest shock.

However the latest field is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and longtime strugglers improving collectively. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. But this is not a typical season!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still