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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the country's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd